The outcome of the research at the current stage will be shaping the idea, conducting preliminary data analysis, and presenting at a conference.  

Some high-income countries, such as Japan, have been struggling with labor shortages due to an aging population and low birth rates. Although Japan has recently introduced several migration-related policies, its foreign-born population remains much lower compared to other OECD countries. Various social, cultural, political, and economic challenges may be associated with such cross-border labor mobility. This project intends to understand the challenges and prospects of migration in addressing labor shortages, with a particular focus on Japan as an island country. This study delves into the driving factors of migration in both migrant-receiving and sending countries, and the labor market and economic implications of migration.

Japan has experienced significant growth in its foreign population in recent years. Along with the increase, the dynamics and composition of migrant groups and regional distribution have also shifted. The number of foreign nationals in 2023 is higher than in 2013 for almost all the regions and countries of origin. Growth of certain countries—notably Vietnam, Nepal, and Indonesia—has been particularly strong. A review of policies suggests that the government has initiated policies for Vietnam and Indonesia, but not for Nepal, indicating that factors beyond policy may explain differences in migration flows to Japan across countries. These factors may relate to both migrant-receiving and sending countries, including distance, skills, economic cooperation, culture, and domestic conditions in countries of origin.

Literature suggests various determinants of migration, among which the distance between host and origin countries is an important factor. To investigate the determinants of immigration to Japan, we plot the distance of countries’capital cities from Tokyo and the difference in migrant population between December 2012 and December 2024. We observe a negative correlation between distance and the increase in migration to Japan. We will further investigate other plausible driving factors.

The increase in the foreign population is not the same in all the prefectures. The foreign population is concentrated in some prefectures, while it has hardly increased in other prefectures. The largest increase in foreign people in Japan is in Tokyo prefecture. The foreign population has also grown in Chiba, Saitama, Osaka, Kanagawa, and Aichi prefectures over the period. The population stagnated or declined around 2020 perhaps due to Covid-19. Applying the prefecture-level migration information, we consider creating treatment groups consisting of prefectures with high foreign populations and comparing them with other prefectures using methods such as matching and nearest neighbor matching.