表題番号：2024C-075
日付：2025/03/23
研究課題３種のリスク区分の導入によるリスク選好の分析
| 研究者所属（当時） | 資格 | 氏名 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| （代表者） | 商学学術院 商学部 | 准教授 | 星野 明雄 |
- 研究成果概要
- This study introduces a novel framework that consistently explains people's risk preferences. The author aims to evaluate these preferences using this innovative framework quantitatively.The framework categorizes risk into three types: pure, speculative, and speculative (or lottery). This explains the seemingly contradictory mix of risk-averse preferences for insurance and risk-loving preferences for lotteries. This comprehensive approach will allow us to measure the risk premium for each of the three categories, providing novel insights into risk management strategies.This study categorizes risk into three types: pure risk (insurance), speculative risk (stock investments), and lottery risk (gambling) to capture varying risk preferences. Using survey data from 1,000 Japanese participants, the study assesses willingness to pay (WTP) for insurance, stock investments, and lotteries. The research introduces two metrics to quantify risk appetite: a risk premium coefficient (h) and risk premium per unit of standard deviation (RP/Δσ). The research plan involves conducting multiple surveys over three years. The survey was conducted in fiscal year 2022, yielding 1,000 valid responses. Significant findings include that individuals exhibit domain-specific risk preferences, with risk aversion predominant in insurance, risk-seeking behavior in lotteries, and moderate risk aversion in stock investments. Importantly, risk preferences across categories show minimal correlation. Risk attitudes are not universal; being enthusiastic about insurance does not imply that individuals are risk-averse regarding investments or gambling. Individuals demonstrate varying risk behaviors based on the nature of the risk. These findings suggest that economic models should consider context-dependent risk preferences rather than fixed personal ones. The results impact financial decision-making, insurance pricing, investment behavior, and the design of policies. As of the end of March 2025, the results and implications have been incorporated into a paper titled “Understanding Risk Preferences: A Three-Type Classification Approach.” This paper was accepted for the upcoming 2025 World Risk and Insurance Economics Congress in Calgary, August 3-7, an international conference co-hosted by the American Risk and Insurance Association (ARIA), the European Group of Risk and Insurance Economists (EGRIE), and the Asia-Pacific Risk and Insurance Association (APRIA). We aim to publish the results in The Journal of Risk and Insurance after getting feedback at the WRIEC 2025. Additionally, we believe these findings suggest further insights when the issue is explored in more detail, and we are currently developing the design of subsequent surveys to gain a broader understanding.