表題番号：2023C-645
日付：2024/09/23
研究課題Cointegrations in Ageing Population Risks and House Price Dynamics
| 研究者所属（当時） | 資格 | 氏名 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| （代表者） | 商学学術院 大学院経営管理研究科 | 准教授 | チェン ミンヤン ウィリアム |
- 研究成果概要
- I find that short-term deviations of house prices from cointegration restrictions is a strong predictor of future rural house prices and migration rate from 1 to 4 year ahead. This is not the case for urban areas nor where cointegration restrictions are being ignored. Rural house prices, not urban ones, are the key to understand this cointegration restriction. Our framework is pertinent to most ageing societies with available housing and demographic data. When a government formulates macroprudential policies internalizing these cointegration restrictions and supporting rural developments, migration into rural areas and population increases are possible. Our evidence highlights the importance of cointegration-based long-run ageing risks for rural housing markets.