Despite its critical insights into the complexity and challenges of hegemonic conflict, power transition theory has three major deficiencies. First, it downplays the roles of non-hegemonic great powers in the competition between the rising power and the incumbent hegemon. Second, it overlooks the impact of partial power transition, that is, power transition taking place within a specific domain of the international system. Third, it equalizes power transition to order transition, maintaining that the new hegemon always promotes a new international order.

This research addresses these problems through a case study of Japan’s pursuit of a regional trade policy in East Asia during the first two decades of the 21st century, a period when China’s rapidly growing trade power and the US’s shrinking share of global trade reshaped the power balance in international trade. My research shows that China’s rising status in international trade did not lead to its rejection of the postwar liberal trade order. Instead, it was the incumbent hegemon, the US, that became increasingly more protectionist, and dissatisfied with the WTO-based multilateral trade system. Focusing on Japan’s strategic maneuvering under this complex situation, I demonstrate that the second-tier great power, which is defined theoretically by its second-only-to-the-hegemon capabilities within a specific domain of the international system, can exert a crucial impact on the power transition process through its strategic maneuvers between the rising power and the incumbent hegemon.

I presented the outcomes of the project first at the faculty seminar of School of International Liberal Studies, Waseda University in November 2023, and then at the research seminar hosted by the Center for Japanese Studies, Fudan University in March 2024. A related paper is scheduled be read at the Annual Conference of American Political Science Association in September 2024.