研究者所属(当時) | 資格 | 氏名 | |
---|---|---|---|
(代表者) | 社会科学総合学術院 社会科学部 | 教授 | 北村 能寛 |
- 研究成果概要
When analyzing the relationship between the Chinese renminbi (RMB) spot and forward
foreign exchange (FX) rates, this paper takes into account the covered interest parity
(CIP) condition. To incorporate the CIP, the paper introduces the forward swap rate, which
reflects the implicit interest rate differential between the two currencies involved in the
exchange. The result exhibits that both onshore (CNY) and offshore (CNH) spot FX rates
contribute to the price discovery of the spot and forward FX rates. The contribution of the
CNY is equivalent to and more dominant than that of the CNH in the price discovery of
the spot FX rates. This implies that the Chinese monetary authority has the ability to
manage the CNH market by controlling the CNY. The authority can also influence the
pricing of renminbi forward FX rates through its control over the CNY. The empirical
analysis in this paper provides evidence that the central parity setting by the Chinese
monetary authority plays a role in explaining the price leadership of the CNY in the spot
FX market. In other words, the central parity exhibits a signaling effect and directly
influences onshore spot FX trading. During this period, the CNY, serving as a reflection
of information on China's FX rate policy, becomes the price leader in the renminbi
currency markets. However, the analysis also suggests that there are additional factors
contributing to the CNY's price leadership that have not been fully examined. Future
research should explore other Chinese monetary policy instruments that may influence
the price discovery process of the renminbi, in order to gain a more comprehensive
understanding of the dynamics and drivers of the CNY's leadership in the FX market.