表題番号：2019C-186
日付：2020/05/08

研究課題死亡率予測に対する確率解析的アプローチと統計的推測論

研究者所属（当時） | 資格 | 氏名 | |
---|---|---|---|

（代表者） | 理工学術院 基幹理工学部 | 教授 | 清水 泰隆 |

- 研究成果概要
- We proposed a quite new approach to the mortality prediction under the "Survival Energy Hypothesis (SEH)"．We assume that a human is born with initial energy, which changes stochastically in time, and the human dies if the energy vanishes. Then, the time of death is represented by the first hitting time of the "survival energy (SE) processes" to zero.This paper assumes the SE follows a time-inhomogeneous diffusion process anddefine the mortality function, which is the first hitting time distribution function of the SE process. Although SEH is actually very fictitious hypothesis, we illustrated that such an assumption had a potential to give a good parametric family of cumulative probability of death, and the parametric family could give surprisingly good prediction for distant future's mortality rate.