表題番号:2015K-234 日付:2015/10/09
研究課題外国為替市場の効率性に関する研究
研究者所属(当時) 資格 氏名
(代表者) 社会科学総合学術院 社会科学部 教授 北村 能寛
研究成果概要

Previous studies on the stock market consider the degree of market efficiency to be an inverse of the predictive power of order flow. Following this notion, I propose simple market efficiency measures in foreign exchange (FX) markets. The first measure considers the market to be inefficient when positive (negative) order flows predict the appreciation (depreciation) of a base currency. The second measure considers whether predictions using order flow result in tangible gains. These measures are related to liquidity levels and information factors in FX markets, unlike the measures in previous studies.