表題番号:2015B-441 日付:2016/04/12
研究課題Stochastic process approaches to modelling system reliability
研究者所属(当時) 資格 氏名
(代表者) 国際学術院 国際教養学部 教授 早川 有
(連携研究者) Victoria University of Wellington Associate Professor Richard Arnold
(連携研究者) Victoria University of Wellington Associate Professor Stefanka Chukova
(連携研究者) Waseda University student Fan Wang
研究成果概要
1) We present a model for the delayed reporting of faults: multiple sub-critical faults are accumulated and then simultaneously reported and repaired. The reporting process is modelled as a stochastic process dependent on the underlying stochastic process generating the faults. The joint distribution of the reporting times and numbers of reported faults is derived. 

We have submitted a manuscript for presentation at The 7th Asia-Pacific International Symposium on Advanced Reliability and Maintenance Modeling in Seoul, Korea, on 24-26 August 2016.

2) We generalise existing approaches to inference in multicomponent systems by formulating the likelihood for systems made up of independent overlapping subsystems, and have shown how to apply this inference procedure to the models that we had previously published.  

A paper on this project was finalised and submitted to IEEE Transaction on Reliability in February 2016.

3) We model the warranty servicing costs by assuming non-zero increasing repair times.  We introduce the generalised alternating renewal process by using the geometric process.  Simulation is used to estimate the expected costs over the warranty period and life cycle. 

We have written a manuscript summarising our results and plan to submit its finalised version to European Journal of Operational Research by August 2016.